There is a common assertion that health care is over one-sixth (or about 18 percent) of the economy. This conclusion, however, is based only on a measure of health care demand. It is much more difficult to identify a corresponding ratio in the supply side data of the economy, that is, in terms of value added and employment.
Our work reconciles information about the supply and demand sides of the national health sector. We use input-output techniques to link the final demand values from the National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) to domestic production and imports of commodities, industry value added, and industry employment. We find that in 2012, health care production required about 15.4 percent of total value added and 18.7 percent of civilian employment. In addition, domestic health care demand required about 1.5 percent of GDP in imports.
A summary paper on this topic was prepared with support from the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and published in the Survey of Current Business in April 2014. Additionally, a working paper/technical appendix is available.
Inforum held its 46th annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 90 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides and video of the outlook presentation.
Lift model used in Stanford's Energy Modeling Forum study of shale gas's effect on U.S. economy - October 21, 2013
The Washington Post's article, "The shale-gas boom won't do much for climate change. But it will make us richer", discusses the key findings of the report from Stanford's Energy Modeling Forum. The study concludes that the shale-gas boom in the United States, by itself, will not contribute to a significant reduction in the nation's carbon emission levels. However, despite its insubstantial response to climate change, shale-gas will aid the nation's economy and its consumers through cheaper energy prices.
Inforum worked in cooperation with Mitre to perform this research. Inforum's Lift model, along with Mitre's use of the MARKAL model, was used to study how an increase in natural gas could transform the United States economy. Some of the notable results include shale gas's impact on future carbon emissions levels and energy prices.
The twenty-first Inforum World Conference was held in Listvyanka, Russia from August 25th to September 1st, 2013. The conference hosts were Inforum's Russian partners at Novosibirsk State University. Listvyanka sits on the coast of one of the world's largest and deepest freshwater lakes, Lake Baikal. It is less than 70 kilometers (43 miles) from Irkutsk, one of Siberia's largest cities. See the conference page for a full listing of papers, presentations, and photos.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released additional Annual Energy Outlook 2013 content. The updated and expanded material includes a comparison of the AEO2013 Reference Case with projections from other organizations. Inforum provided projections of economic growth, total energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, liquid fuels, and coal.
Other participating organizations included the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Social Security Administration (SSA), Oxford Economic Group (OEG), Blue Chip Consensus, International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). An overview of the comparisons and detailed data tables are available.
The Aspen Institute and MAPI (Manufacturers
Alliance for Productivity and Innovation) partnered with Inforum to study how a manufacturing
resurgence would affect the U.S. economy. The study provides policy recommendations to take
advantage of current momentum and bolster manufacturing growth. Additionally, the paper compares how the economy would look
following two different growth scenarios.
If a manufacturing resurgence is achieved, GDP could be $1.5 trillion greater than under the baseline scenario by 2025. The number of manufacturing jobs could grow by 307,000 per year through 2025 under the resurgence scenario. Meanwhile, only 23,000 manufacturing jobs per year would be created in the baseline scenario. Additionally, a manufacturing renaissance would help the trade balance shift from a $500 billion deficit to a $700 billion surplus by 2025. The full paper is available. A press release also is available.
The 45th annual Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 13th, 2012 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 90 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the conference page for conference agenda, slides, and video.
Inforum and the
National Association of Manufacturers conducted a study of the economic impacts
of fiscal policies specified in the Budget Control Act of 2011. The study extended earlier work, published in June
2012, by considering economic effects of tax increases and cuts to nondefense expenditures in addition to the
defense spending cuts studied earlier. In addition to long-run effects, immediate effects due to anticipation of
future changes also are considered. The Congressional Budget Office predicts a short but significant recession with
unemployment reaching 9% and recovery starting in the second half of 2013. Inforum offers a less optimistic
prediction about the effects of the potential Fiscal Cliff. Inforum Executive Director Jeffrey Werling argues that
the fiscal cliff already is having an effect even though policies are not scheduled to take effect for two months.
More details are available in a press release. A NAM press release, a report summary, and the full report are available. The work was featured in the Washington Post on October 26, 2012, and a summary is available from the University of Maryland.
Failure to Act: The Economic Impact Of Current Investment Trends in Airports, Inland Waterways, and Marine Ports Infrastructure - September 13, 2012
Inforum and the Economic Development Research Group investigated the economic impacts of the deterioration of airports, marine ports, and inland waterway transportation infrastructure over the next 30 years. The work was sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers.
The Twentieth Inforum World Conference in Florence, Italy - September 2012
The twentieth Inforum World Conference was held in Florence, Italy from September 2nd to September 9th, 2012. The conference hosts were Inforum's Italian partners at IRPET, The Regional Institute for Economic Planning of Tuscany, and the University of Florence. See the conference page for details of the presentations and papers.
Inforum and the National Association of Manufacturers conducted a study of the economic impacts of budget cuts specified in the Budget Control Act of 2011. The study focused on cuts to defense spending and the likely effects on the national economy, on the nation's industries, and on state economies. Findings include a loss of about 1 million private sector jobs and about 1% of GDP by 2014, with California, Virginia, and Texas losing the most jobs. A press release, a report summary, and the full report are available.
Inforum contributed to the International Labour Organization's Global Employment Trends 2012 report. Inforum studied how the spending of companies' large cash reserves would affect GDP and employment. Using the LIFT model, two scenarios were developed. In the first scenario, excess cash reserves are invested in capital serving the industry in which a particular company operates. In the second scenario, cash reserves are invested in an Infrastructure Bank that provides funding to infrastructure projects throughout the country. In both cases, the study finds significant boosts to GDP and employment. A press release from University of Maryland's Newsdesk is available.
The 2011 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 13 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 80 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the conference page for additional details.
The Nineteenth Inforum World Conference in Hazyview, South Africa - August 2011
The nineteenth Inforum World Conference took place in Hazyview, South Africa, from August 21st to 28th, 2011. Hazyview is near the Kruger National Park and is located about seven hours from Johannesburg, South Africa. Accomodations were provided at the Hippo Hollow Country Estate. See the conference page for additional details and conference materials.
Failure to Act: The Economic Impact of Current Investment Trends on Surface Transportation Infrastructure - July 27, 2011
Inforum and the Economic Development Research Group investigated the economic impacts of deterioration of roads and other transportation infrastructure over the next 30 years. The work was sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers. The report is available here
Doug Meade and Bryan M. Shone of the U.S. Department of Defense presented their joint paper Potential Uses of DEPPS as an Analytical Tool for Defense Policy Makers at the 2011 conference of the Western Economics Association. Earlier papers presented at WEA conferences in 2008 and 2009 also are available.
Inforum staff presented recent work at the 19th International Input-Output Conference in Alexandria, Virginia on June 16th, 2011. The International Input-Output Association (IIOA) is a non-profit organization that promotes the use of input-output economic analysis around the world. Jeffrey Werling, Doug Meade, Doug Nyhus, and Ron Horst presented a paper titled "Health Care Spending in the Long Run: An Application of the Inforum LIFT Model". Doug Meade presented a paper titled " Using the Inforum LIFT and Mudan Models to Investigate the Impacts of Cap & Trade Legislation on International Leakages." Inforum partners from China, Denmark, Italy, and Russia also participated in the conference. A conference program is available.
Inforum In The News - Summer 2011 - June 8, 2011
Jeffrey Werling, Executive Director of Inforum, recently was quoted by U.S. News. Werling described reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. economy despite some recent disappointing economic indicators. In particular, Werling points to improving conditions in the manufacturing industry and the decreasing competitiveness of Chinese labor.
The 2010 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 13 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 70 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the conference page for additional details.
The Eighteenth Inforum World Conference in Hikone, Japan - September 2010
The eighteenth Inforum World Conference took place in Hikone, Japan, from September 5th to 10th, 2010. The conference was held at the Grand Duke Hotel in Hikone, home to the historical Hikone Castle. See the conference page for additional details and conference materials.
Keybridge Research and Inforum released the results of their analysis of Industrial Energy Consumers of America's (IECA) policy package. The study, titled "Economic Impact of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America's Sustainable Manufacturing & Growth Initiative", used Inforum's Lift model to measure the effects on the U.S. economy. Over the next two decades, the policy package is expected to achieve its goals by reducing GHG emissions, stimulating economic growth, and creating jobs.
Inforum In The News - Summer 2010
Jeffrey Werling appeared in a recent Washington Examiner article to discuss the effects of federal aid on the Washington metropolitan housing market. Werling states that the "homebuyers' tax credit was a significant stimulus to the market." With federal stimulus funds being cut off, the area's housing market likely will have a difficult time maintaining its recent growth. On August 19th, Jeffrey Werling appeared on the Fox 5 morning news program to discuss the current status of the U.S. economy under President Obama.
Keybridge Research and Inforum released a report detailing the long-term economic impacts of electrifying the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. Commissioned by the Electrification Coalition, the study finds that a shift towards vehicle electrification yields a variety of benefits by 2030. America can reduce its dependency on oil and prepare itself to withstand future oil supply shocks. The number of jobs will increase, household income will rise, and the U.S. trade deficit will be smaller.
Inforum In The News - Spring 2010
Jeffrey Werling, Executive Director of Inforum, was quoted in a New York Times article regarding energy efficiency in the U.S. military. Werling discusses how the United States is not immune to unexpected price shocks in the world petroleum market. Military leaders argue that a shift away from fossil-based energy source could strengthen America's military and save soliders' lives.
Fall 2009 Outlook Conference and Forecasts - December 2009
The 2009 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 3 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 60 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the press release and the conference page for additional details.
The Seventeenth Inforum World Conference in Jurmala, Latvia - September 2009
The seventeenth Inforum World Conference was hosted by the Riga Technical University in Jurmala, Latvia, from September 7th to 12th, 2009. The conference was held at the Lielupe Hotel in the resort community of Jurmala, near the capital city of Riga. See the conference page for additional details.
The Presidents Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) reported projections of U.S. labor market developments through 2016 and described education and training programs needed to develop a competitive workforce. The CEA used industry employment projections from the Inforum LIFT model to complement Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts of industry and occupation growth. The CEA web site provides the full report.
Jeff Werling and Ron Horst published Macroeconomic and Industry Impacts of 9/11: An Interindustry Macroeconomic Approach in the journal Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy. Preliminary results of this study were presented in November 2008 at the 55th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International in New York City ( press release) and on March 17th, 2009, at the Third Annual DHS University Network Summit in Washington D.C. The study was organized by CREATE, a DHS-funded organization at USC dedicated to the study of terrorism.
Abstract: This paper is part of a collection organized by the Economic Impact Modeling Forum (EIMF) that convened in 2008 to quantify the economic impacts of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11). We consider the aggregate and industry-level impacts of the event. The general equilibrium model employed features both full industrial detail and a consistent, bottom-up representation of the macroeconomy. We employ a set of primary impacts on the Manhattan financial industry and the national travel industry as identified and estimated by EIMF colleagues. These impacts are imposed on a historic baseline economy which includes the 9/11 event. The results provide an estimate of what the economy would have experienced by avoiding 9/11, including the impacts of direct business interruption to specific sectors, the secondary impacts on related industries, and the tertiary impacts across the economy. The results show that 9/11 did affect economic activity negatively over 2001 to 2003. As is typical for a macroeconomic neoclassical growth model, the aggregate impact of the conjectured shocks dissipates over time. Indeed, this model shows that historic economic activity in 2004 to 2006 may have been elevated over what would have occurred in those years had 9/11 not occurred. We argue, therefore, that the full impact on activity and income should be computed as the net impact over 2001 to 2006. We find that the net, six-year effect on real GDP is relatively minor, at about 0.3 percent of GDP of 2001. Effects on real national income and personal consumption, however, were more significant, at about 0.6 percent.
The Business Roundtable today released a major study identifying policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing economic costs. This study was a collaborative effort among member companies to develop, evaluate, and recommend technology-based solutions to meet the sustainable growth challenge. A key focus of the study was how technology adoption can be accelerated through informed policy and public-private partnership. The final study, The Balancing Act: Climate Change, Energy Security and the U.S. Economy , concludes that a successful policy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions would leverage a balanced portfoloio of technologies and eliminate barriers to technology development and deployment. One of the study's findings is that with a combination of policy leadership and aggressive adoption of carbon-reducing energy technologies, the costs of carbon reduction can be reduced by $1.9 trillion by 2050. The study was based on scenarios developed using the Inforum LIFT model of the U.S. economy, which analyzes the interaction between industries as well as macroeconomic performance. The LIFT model is well suited for this type of study since it can model the representation of the energy technologies, the industry price and output effects of a carbon tax, and the effects of policy and technology on GDP, real income, and other macroeconomic variables.
International Input-Output Association Newsletter: Special Issue in Memory of W. W. Leontief - February 2009
The International Input-Output Association's February 2009 newsletter features a series of articles in memory of Wassily Leontief to commemorate the tenth anniversary of his death. The articles are writen by colleagues of Leontief, telling how he influenced them and and the development of input-output economics. This special issue includes an article by Inforum's founder, Clopper Almon, who recalls his relationship with Leontief at Harvard University and beyond.
Economic Impact of the Energy Security Leadership Council's National Strategy for Energy Security - February 23, 2009
Securing America's Future Energy ( SAFE) is a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization based in Washington D.C. that strives to reduce the United States' dependence on oil and improve national security. In a speech at the National Press Club, Frederick W. Smith, CEO of FedEx and Co-Chairman of the SAFE organization's Energy Security Leadership Council (ESLC), presented research performed by Inforum and Keybridge Research. Inforum's efforts provided a long-term economic analysis of the Energy Security Leadership Council's National Strategy for Energy Security . The study revealed a variety of positive impacts on the United States economy. Smith's remarks, along with the full report, is available on the SAFE web site.
Preliminary estimates of macroeconomic and industry impacts of the U.S. auto industry crisis were presented at the 2008 Outlook Conference. Strong evidence was found against common reports on potential employment losses were the Detroit Three to fail. See the press release and the conference page for additional details.
Fall 2008 Outlook Conference and Forecasts - December 2008
The 2008 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 9 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 60 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the press release and the conference page for additional details.
Inforum In The News - Fall 2008
Jeff Werling, Executive Director of Inforum, has recently appeared in several media outlets. In a September 8, 2008 article of Financial Week, Werling comments on the proposed mortgage bailout of the three major U.S. automakers. He also appeared on Nighly Business Report, a daily television program on PBS, on August 14, 2008. Werling commented on the rising retail inflation rates. He also appeared on the Fox 5 morning news program in October to discuss the recent financial crisis. The Washington Times quoted Werling in a December 10, 2008 article on thrift.
Software Updates - September 2008
Inforum has updated multiple pieces of software and their associated documentation. Please make sure your software and documentation are up to date. See the G7 page for details. Also, please remember that EconData is updated regularly. EconData contains several thousand economic time series in a standard, easy-to-use form.
The Sixteenth Inforum World Conference in North Cyprus - August 2008
The sixteenth Inforum World Conference was hosted by the European University of Lefke, North Cyprus, from August 31st to September 7th, 2008. The conference was held at the Acapulco Beach Club & Resort Hotel in Kyrenia. See the conference page for additional details.
A Partnership with Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila in Mexico - March 4, 2008
We are pleased to announce a new partnership between Inforum and the Centro de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas at Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila in Mexico. We welcome Dr. Alejandro Dávila Flores and his colleagues as they join the Inforum partnership, who collectively represent over 20 countries. We look forward to working with them to improve the representation of Mexico in the Inforum international modeling system, and we look forward to learning from their expertise in regional economic modeling.
The 2007 Inforum Outlook Conference - November 29, 2007
Inforum's Fall Outlook Seminar was held on Thursday, November 29, 2007 at the Clubhouse on the University of Maryland Golf Course. About 35 guests attended the conference, including academics, policy makers, and industry representatives. See the conference page for additional details.
The Fifteenth Inforum World Conference at Trujillo Spain - September 2007
The Fifteenth Inforum World Conference took place in Trujillo, Spain from September 10th to September 16th, 2007. Trujillo is located in the southwestern Spanish region of Extremadura. Forty scholars from 14 countries came together to share their experiences with Inforum-type models and software.
Generous Donations Reunite Student and Mentor - June 2007
University Alumni Nai-Chi Wang '71 Ph.D. and his wife Amy recently made a $50,000 contribution to the Dudley and Louisa Dillard Fund. The fund was organized in honor of Professor Dillard who chaired the department for twenty-five years. Its proceeds are used to attract distinguished scholars to the Department of Economics. The Wang's generosity did not go unnoticed. Almon's organization, the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, also donated $30,000 to the Dillard Fund. Over 35 years ago, Almon served as Wang's advisor and mentor. The paired donations spurred an unexpected reunion between the two. The full story is available here.
The Long-Term Economic Impacts of Implementing the Energy Security Leadership Council's Recommendations to the Nation on Reducing U.S. Oil Dependence - April 2007
In this April 2007 report, Inforum provided economic analysis of the policies advocated by the Energy Security Leadership Council. The study finds significant improvements in energy efficiency yielding welfare improvements and increased economic security. The report is available here.
Macroeconomic and Industrial Effects Of Higher Oil and Natural Gas Prices - December 2006
In this December 2006 Department of Commerce report, Inforum provided simulations of the effects on the U.S. economy of high oil and natural gas prices. Inforum's LIFT model was used to estimate effects on both the macro economy and on industries. In particular, Inforum studied the effects of high prices on energy-intensive industries.
The Economic Costs of Disruptions in Container Shipments - March 29, 2006
In this March 29, 2006 CBO report to congress, Inforum provided simulations of the effects on the U.S. economy of shutdowns of several west coast ports. The port closures would significantly affect the amount of freight sent and received by shipping containers. Potential disruptions pose significant threats to national security and the U.S. economy.
Macroeconomic and Industry Impacts of Currency Valuation: A Global Modeling Analysis - June 27, 2005
On June 27, 2005, Jeff Werling presented an analysis of the effects of Chinese currency revaluation to the International Input-Output Association in Beijing, China. The research employed Inforum's Bilateral Trade Model.