Industry Forecasts

Inforum's Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool (LIFT) provides forecasts for macroeconomic and industry variables to the year 2030 and bridges the gap between aggregate economic activity measured by GNP or GDP and the specific markets in which the products are sold. These forecasts provide valuable information for up to 97 detailed industries on:

  • Future production
  • Consumption
  • Imports
  • Exports
  • Labor costs (including Social Insurance and health insurance contributions)

An example of a long-term forecast for sector 18 Paper is shown below :

							
3Nov00  Inforum Base, Nov00       SELLER:   18  Paper
                          Millions of 1987$

 BUYER:                          1977     1987     1995     2000     2010    77-95  95-10
 SALES TO    INTERMEDIATE
 9 Food & tobacco              5871.3   5725.3   6457.4   6861.0   7565.9   0.53   1.06
 13 Paper                     13687.4  16703.2  19271.4  22439.3  29142.1   1.90   2.76
 14 Printing & publishing      8113.6  13201.8  12822.3  14351.9  17397.2   2.54   2.03
 16 Other chemicals            1746.0   1927.1   2110.5   2483.8   3421.8   1.05   3.22
 20 Plastic products            762.2   1037.6   1429.3   1671.8   2215.6   3.49   2.92
 24 Stone, clay, glass          859.8    975.0    985.8   1116.1   1334.0   0.76   2.02
 28 Metal products              613.0    523.0    579.2    652.6    787.9  -0.31   2.05
 48 Misc. manufacturing         701.3    595.2    673.4    741.3    781.3  -0.23   0.99
 59 Wholesale trade            1263.2   2403.2   3053.8   3470.5   4340.4   4.90   2.34
 60 Retail trade               1654.6   3557.6   4253.3   4532.0   5196.1   5.25   1.33
 61 Eating & drinking place     947.8   1100.6   1305.4   1423.3   1698.3   1.78   1.75
 69 Education,npo               607.0   1339.4   1769.4   1860.9   2141.7   5.94   1.27
 73 Unimportant industry        515.3    581.9    669.8    753.5    916.3   1.46   2.09
 SUM:  INTERMEDIATE           43984.6  57610.2  64958.6  73070.5  90163.5   2.17   2.19
 
SALES TO    CONSTRUCTION
 SUM:  CONSTRUCTION             570.7    442.6    422.0    498.8    551.5  -1.68   1.78
 SALES TO    PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
 24  Women's clothing           720.2   1254.6   1541.3   1649.1   1910.9   4.23   1.43
 31  Drug prep.& sun            779.1   1154.3   1372.6   1469.3   1922.2   3.15   2.25
 33  Stat & writing su          586.7   1037.2   1232.2   1361.2   1572.8   4.12   1.63
 38  Household paper prod      3086.2   3843.4   4726.0   5066.9   5787.9   2.37   1.35
 SUM:  PERSONAL CONSUMPTION    5201.9   7338.3   8941.7   9621.6  11280.7   3.01   1.55
 SALES TO    OTHER FINAL DEMAND
 S&L EDUCATION                  544.2    771.8    888.8    993.6   1168.4   2.72   1.82
 EXPORTS                       2324.0   3917.0   7139.0  10736.2  18946.4   6.23   6.51
 IMPORTS                      -3738.0  -5793.0  -8406.0  -8632.5 -10162.9   4.50   1.27
 INVENTORY CHANGE               524.0    571.8    502.7    371.2    542.3  -0.23   0.51
 SUM:  OTHER FINAL DEMAND       372.5    591.4   1444.3   4871.5  12081.3   7.53  14.16
SUM:FD STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY  796.2  -1169.3   -984.9   -984.9   -984.9   0.00   0.00
 OUTPUT                       50926.0  64839.0  74808.4  87105.5 113124.7   2.14   2.76

For those who need even greater industry detail, Inforum also produces forecasts for up to 360 industries in our detailed model Iliad. This model forecasts future production, consumption, imports, and exports. The model also produces a sales forecast that shows sales of an industry to each of its customers forecasted to 2030. This enables analysts to identify future sources of growth for a given product. An industry's customers include those who purchase products for intermediate use (i.e. other producers) as well as those who purchase products for final consumption (i.e. consumers, government, and exports).

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